# Predicted Replenishment

Page: https://alidemirbas.com.tr/en/lab/journeys/predicted-need-replenishment

Predicted need → reminder → subscription or repurchase → exit

## Purpose

Remind users before a repeat-use product is likely to run out, while clearly treating the timing as a prediction.

Goal: Recovery & Retry · Category: Conversion & Purchase

## Steps

- **Trigger**: Predicted depletion date is approaching
- **Decision**: Is the prediction reliable?
  - Yes: Has the user already repurchased?
  - No: Prediction not reliable enough; the journey does not start
- **Decision**: Has the user already repurchased?
  - Yes: Repurchased
  - No: Is the same product or a compatible alternative available?
- **Decision**: Is the same product or a compatible alternative available?
  - Available: Push: The product may be running low soon
  - Neither: No product to suggest
- **Action**: Push: The product may be running low soon
- **Wait**: Wait 2 days
- **Decision**: Purchased?
  - Yes: Repurchased
  - No: Does this user regularly repurchase this item?
- **Decision**: Does this user regularly repurchase this item?
  - Yes: Email: Offer subscription or automatic replenishment
  - No: Email: Show repurchase and pack options
- **Action**: Email: Offer subscription or automatic replenishment
- **Wait**: Wait 3 days
- **Decision**: Subscription or automatic replenishment started?
  - Yes: Subscription or automatic replenishment active
  - No: Purchased?
- **Decision**: Purchased?
  - Yes: Repurchased
  - No: Is WhatsApp permitted?
- **Action**: Email: Show repurchase and pack options
- **Wait**: Wait 3 days
- **Decision**: Purchased?
  - Yes: Repurchased
  - No: Is WhatsApp permitted?
- **Decision**: Is WhatsApp permitted?
  - Yes: WhatsApp: Final replenishment reminder with a direct purchase link
  - No: No further reminders
- **Action**: WhatsApp: Final replenishment reminder with a direct purchase link
- **Wait**: Wait 2 days
- **Decision**: Purchased?
  - Yes: Repurchased
  - No: No further reminders
- **Exit**: Prediction not reliable enough; the journey does not start
- **Exit**: Repurchased
- **Exit**: Subscription or automatic replenishment active
- **Exit**: No product to suggest
- **Exit**: No further reminders

## Guardrails

- Do not message when prediction confidence is too low.
- Stop when the item is repurchased.

## Core rule

Predicted replenishment works only when the prediction is reliable enough to be useful.

## When to set it up

Consider this journey when order reports for a repeat-use product show reorder intervals falling well behind the product's consumption rhythm, or customers coming back long after the product must have run out. You need a depletion estimate per product computed from past purchase intervals together with a reliability level, repurchase and subscription-start events tied to the same customer, stock status for the product or a compatible alternative, and push, email and WhatsApp consent. If the estimate rests on a single purchase, strengthen the prediction rule first; a reminder sent on the wrong date annoys someone whose product is not empty yet.

## How to set it up

- **Trigger and entry**: The journey fires when the predicted depletion date approaches; the flow opens only if the prediction is reliable, the product has not been repurchased and the same product or a compatible alternative is available. Customers who pass these three checks are split at random: journey group with reminders, control group without.
- **Who must not enter**: A customer whose prediction is not reliable never enters; the journey closes before it starts. Each repeat-purchase product is its own scope: a customer who has already repurchased does not enter, and attention-based Browse Abandonment and Back-in-Stock Alert, ownership-matured Cross-Sell / Complementary Offer and the not-yet-patterned First-to-Second Purchase are separate journeys.
- **Timing and channels**: A push first says the product may be running low; wait 2 days. Without a purchase, an email offers regular repurchasers a subscription or automatic replenishment and everyone else repurchase and pack options; wait 3 days. Still no purchase and WhatsApp permitted: a final reminder with a direct purchase link, then 2 more days.
- **Exit and handoff**: Repurchase ends the journey at once and cancels queued reminders; a subscription or automatic replenishment that starts closes it too. An unreliable prediction and no product to suggest are exits as well; without WhatsApp consent, or with no purchase 2 days after the final reminder, no further reminders are sent, and there is no handoff.
- **Frequency and consent**: No more than three reminders go out per product: a push, an email and WhatsApp only where permitted; push and email need their own consent as well. When the prediction is not reliable no channel sends anything, and the wording says the product may be running low, never that it has run out.

## How to measure success

**Incremental replenishment rate vs control**: What the reminder adds is how much higher the share repurchasing or subscribing is in the journey group than in the control group; a regular buyer would buy anyway, so purchase counts alone are not enough. Every customer who passed the checks and was assigned to either group goes into the denominator; those who repurchase the product or a compatible alternative, or start a subscription, within the same follow-up window after assignment go into the numerator. Subtract one share from the other to get the journey's effect; push delivery or an email click does not change the denominator.

Also track:

- **Subscription or automatic replenishment starts**: In the regular-repurchaser branch, the share of subscriptions that actually start after the subscription email; a click on the offer is not a subscription, and a lasting conversion is worth more than a single sale.
- **Contribution per touch**: Read purchases after the push, the email and the WhatsApp message one by one; if the final reminder adds no purchases, consider dropping the WhatsApp step.
- **Prediction accuracy**: Compare when the control group repurchases on its own with the predicted date; if purchases come long after the prediction or not at all, revisit the prediction rule and the reliability threshold.
- **Opt-outs and complaints**: Track per channel how many push opt-outs, email unsubscribes and WhatsApp complaints follow the reminders; a reminder for a product that has not run out irritates people, and it shows up here first.

## What to watch when reading the result

- Unless the journey group replenishes more often than the control group, the reminder merely pulled a purchase forward by a few days for people who would have bought anyway, and more clicks or add-to-carts are no substitute. Read the replenishment gap together with the consent you lost.
- Everything you read here is tied to this channel order, the 2-day and 3-day waits and the reliability threshold you used. If the same customer is held for the same product in Browse Abandonment, Back-in-Stock Alert, Cross-Sell / Complementary Offer or First-to-Second Purchase, credit the purchase to one journey only; with no handoff, entry rules are what keep them from overlapping.
- For a small gap, enter each group's customers and replenishment counts into the [A/B test significance calculator](https://alidemirbas.com.tr/en/calculators/ab-test); if it is not significant, do not call the journey a winner, extend the follow-up window to the product's consumption cycle and run the same read again.
- Report customers who never started because the prediction was unreliable as their own line; if that share is large, the problem is the prediction rather than the journey, and the fix is better data, not a looser reliability threshold.

## Frequently Asked Questions

### How should replenishment timing be estimated?

Use relevant data such as past purchase intervals and the product's consumption cycle. This example starts only when the estimate is sufficiently reliable. A single purchase does not establish an exact depletion date. Check for repurchase and product availability first.

### Can the replenishment message say the product has run out?

Not without verified consumption data. Make the estimate explicit, for example by saying it may be running low. Review inaccurate prediction rules and stop reminders based on an old need once repurchase occurs.

### When should a subscription or automatic replenishment be suggested?

This example considers it when repeat purchasing is established. Explain price, frequency and stopping conditions clearly. A click is not a completed subscription. Stop the old one-off replenishment sequence once the subscription actually starts.